SOUTHERN STRATEGY MAY GIVE WESLEY CLARK ADVANTAGE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. With Wesley Clark expected to announce his candidacy in the presidential race this week, University of Arkansas experts say the retired general has a host of advantages over the other nine Democratic hopefuls - not the least of which is his Southern appeal.

Since World War II, every successful presidential candidate to win a presidential election has implemented intentional strategies to woo Southern voters, said UA political scientists Todd Shields and Janine Parry. Many capitalized on their Southern heritage. But those born and bred outside of Dixie, such as John F. Kennedy, chose Southern running mates and emphasized issues important to the South.

"Geographically, the South is the most cohesive voting bloc in the nation," Shields said. "Prior to World War II, the South solidly identified itself with the Democratic Party, but that’s no longer a guarantee for Democratic candidates. Southerners are looking for social conservatism - an emphasis on welfare reform, crime and most importantly, family values - which they’re more likely to find in Republican candidates than in liberal, East Coast Democrats."

Shields and Parry name the "East Coast" Democratic candidates who have tried and failed to become president over the past 50 years - Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis - and claim none of them sufficiently catered to the South. Their negligence cost them against an opposing party that knew the importance of winning Southern votes.

"Republicans started appealing to the South early on because they needed additional votes to carry them to victory," Parry said. "But as industry and population centers started moving South and West, the region became more influential, and Republicans hustled even harder for a strategic edge."

Now home to the world's largest corporation, Wal-Mart, and to booming agricultural, transportation and banking industries, the South represents a powerful region. And in addition to its industrial might, the South has important electoral significance, Shields said. He estimates that approximately 20 percent of the U.S. electorate consists of swing voters - people who vacillate between parties, depending on platforms and issues - and that many of these swing voters reside in the South.

Clark's home base in Little Rock gives him considerable advantages over other Democratic candidates. Not only does he have local appeal, but he also has access to a powerful political support network, originally established around Bill Clinton in the early '90s. In addition, Clark seems to hold more conservative, centrist views than his outspoken competitor Howard Dean. And as the former NATO commander, he boasts an even more auspicious military career than fellow candidate and decorated veteran John Kerry.

"Those credentials could be particularly attractive to Americans in light of the ambiguous progress of the War on Terror, and they could go a long way toward repairing the Democratic Party's reputation as weak on national defense," Shields said.

Despite his political assets, Clark will face significant obstacles in his quest for the presidency. Not the least of those obstacles is George W. Bush, a president who enjoyed enormous support from the American people following September 11 and who has access to seemingly bottomless campaign financing. But if Americans continue to feel the pressure of economic downturn or if troops continue to meet opposition and to suffer casualties in Iraq, Shields predicts the President's growing vulnerability.

"In my opinion, the holiday season will be the key to predicting Clark’s chances at the presidency," he said. "If people find themselves cutting back because they don't have the money to buy presents - if they’re aware that last year’s holiday season was more bountiful than this one - Bush will have difficulty recovering. Even if the economy starts improving next summer, Bush may not recover with it."

But an additional obstacle could be the fact that Clark is running as a dark horse candidate. While Parry and Shields think the general"s status as a political outsider will appeal to American voters initially, his lack of experience may prove a liability in the long run.

"Political experts get nervous about bringing in someone who's never run before," Parry said. "There are a lot of uncertainties. What if he turns out to be thin-skinned or inflexible or doesn’t understand the necessity of civic dialogue? As a general, he’s accustomed to people following his orders, but that's not how government works."

For the time being, these questions about Clark’s ability to govern join questions about his platform and positions. But Shields and Parry believe that with Clark’s entrance into the presidential race, there's a good chance the American people will soon have answers to both.