SUMMERTIME—AND THE WEATHER WILL BE AVERAGE, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS CLIMATOLOGIST SAYS

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - Although much of the United States will remain drought-stricken and hot this summer, Northwest Arkansas will have a respite from record-setting heat and extreme dry spells, according to a University of Arkansas climatologist.

John Hehr, professor of geosciences and associate dean of Fulbright College, said that slightly higher than normal spring rains have left trees and plants green and lush. And 90-day forecasts predict average temperatures and rainfall this summer—which means the rainfall will decline, but not disappear.

Northwest Arkansas has not seen many "normal" summers in the past five years: In some years, highs above 100 degrees and low precipitation levels in July and August have left yards scorched and trees weakened.

Summers in Northwest Arkansas, however, typically feature fair amounts of rain and temperatures hovering in the 90s. This summer, for instance, forecasts for the region predict highs mostly in the low 90s with perhaps a few days climbing into the 100s, Hehr said.

A mild, rainy spring has helped keep Arkansas water tables at or above normal levels. The storms that have swept through the region have brought normal rainfall for June—almost five inches by the month’s end (see below). Average rainfall for July drops off to less than three inches, and returns in August to about 3 1/2 inches, with storm fronts gathering towards the end of the month. The rainfall begins to pick up again in September with averages of 4 1/2 inches.

"Between the spring rains and the predicted summer weather, we should have enough rainfall to keep us in good shape with crops that require water," Hehr said.

The forecast here marks one of the few summer bright spots in the United States, as most of the country remains locked in drought. Parts of California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas will see drought worsen, according to National Weather Service predictions. And areas of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah remain under extreme drought conditions.

The East Coast also remains dry, although spring rains brought some relief to the northern states. Continued dry conditions are likely to take a toll on crops, create more wildfires like those burning in Arizona and Colorado, and exacerbate water shortages in the affected states.

Average monthly rainfall from 1961-1990

June 4.97 inches

July 2.88 inches

August 3.57 inches

September 4.49 inches

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