Sunday's Election Could Lead to Civil War, Researchers Say

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - The Iraq election is so fraught with confusion and chaos that two University of Arkansas professors are concerned it could lead to civil war.

Najib Ghadbian, assistant professor of political science, and Joel Gordon, associate professor of history, have been studying polls, news reports and political essays concerning the situation in Iraq. They said that surveys show many Iraqis are unsure of what they are even voting for. In fact, much of the world is confused about the entire situation, they said.

"According to a poll mentioned on CBS, about 60 percent of Iraqis believe they are voting for president, which they're not," Ghadbian said.

The election will elect 275 members to the Transitional National Assembly. The assembly will be responsible for drafting a new constitution and presenting it for a referendum by October.

"A lot of people say, 'Isn't there already a constitution?'" Ghadbian said.

Many people think there already is a basic constitution, but in reality what is being called a constitution is actually a Transitional Administrative Law created by the Coalition Provisional Authority, which was led by Ambassador L. Paul Bremer, III. The transitional law outlines how a federal democratic Iraq should look, in terms of people's rights and freedoms.

If the proposed constitution were to be approved, elections for a permanent assembly would be held by Dec. 15, 2005, and the fully constitutional government would take power by the end of the year. If the constitution were not to be approved, there would be new assembly elections by Dec. 15 and the same process would be repeated the following year.

Though media reports vary, more than 120 parties have been authorized to file candidates for this weekend's assembly election. The parties can file a minimum of 12 and a maximum of 275 names. Every third name must be a woman, to guarantee a percentage of female representation.

"We're going to see something more like an Iranian parliament rather than an assembly with Western-type women," Ghadbian pointed out.

On the ballot, a voter will see the names of the parties, but not the names of the people who are running. Iraqis are electing assembly representatives based on their political affiliation, without knowing who they are.

Ghadbian described the general situation in Iraq: The three basic sects in Iraq - Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis - are divided over whether to have the elections at all. The Kurds and Shiites generally endorse the election. The Kurds hope to move a step closer to a federal, democratic Iraq, while the Shiites -- who make up an estimated 55-60 percent of the total population - hope to regain control over politics. They've been underrepresented relative to their population in key governmental positions since 1921.

The Sunnis are calling for a boycott of the election because they feel they will be under-represented. They also consider an election under the current circumstances to be meaningless and possibly dangerous, Ghadbian said.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to take an active role in organizing the election.

"The Bush administration is insistent upon the election," Ghadbian said. "Some Iraqis say 'Yes, we'll vote;' others say, 'No, we will not participate.'"

One of the main problems, Ghadbian said, is the widespread violence and lack of security, which has escalated because insurgents don't want the elections to take place.

"It's like suicide to decide to go vote," Ghadbian said.

One result is that polling places aren't being announced until the day of the election for security reasons.

"There's really no safe place on election day," Gordon said. "You don't know where the car is going to explode."

Ghadbian pointed out that international observers, put in place to make sure the elections are free and fair, will be restricted to safe areas, so many polling places won't be observed at all. Election officials, responsible for handling the polls and counting the votes, are resigning under threat daily, he said.

Iraq has been in a state of chaos since the fall of Baghdad, Gordon explained, which means much of the population lacks basic services such as electricity and fuel. This puts further strain on the election.

The United Nations is in charge of conducting elections for Iraqis who live outside Iraq. About 1 million Iraqis will be eligible to vote in 75 polling places set up in 14 countries. Seven of the polling places are in the United States. Unfortunately, few outside Iraqis are expected to show up to vote, mainly for logistical reasons. In many cases, Iraqis would have to drive hours to reach the nearest established polling places. For instance, the only polling place in the entire south is in Memphis, Tenn. These voters have to make two trips - one to register to vote, and another to actually vote.

According to Gordon, one of the biggest problems with the election as a whole is the fact that Iraqis are going to the polls to vote not as Iraqis, but as one of the three constituent communities in Iraq - the Kurds, Shiites or Sunnis.

"They're not thinking about themselves as common citizens, but as interest groups competing for political and ideological power," he said.

The professors expressed concern that, if the Sunni succeed in boycotting the election, the situation could escalate into civil war. To compound the ill feelings, coalition forces have been using members of the sectarian groups against each other, Ghadbian said. According to Gordon, Shiite and Kurdish forces are being used to suppress the Sunnis.

"That's just fanning the flames for civil war," he said. "They're trying to build a unified country, utilizing the old colonial policies of 'divide and conquer,' and playing one off of the other."

One positive outcome of this election, Ghadbian said, might be the opportunity it provides for the Bush administration to acknowledge mistakes, support a genuine process of national reconciliation and adopt a realistic "exit strategy" with a clear timetable for military withdrawal.