Arkansas Poll: Presidential Preference Clear, Ballot Measures Too Close to Call

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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – The 14^th annual Arkansas Poll provides a snapshot of a state whose residents remain worried about the economy but enthusiastic about their governor and confident in the overall direction of their state. In the presidential election, very likely voters prefer Gov. Mitt Romney to President Barack Obama, 58 percent to 31 percent.

“To the surprise of no one, there’s at least a 20 point gap between Obama and Romney among Arkansas voters,” poll director Janine Parry said. “A more interesting finding may be the continued enthusiasm for Gov. Mike Beebe. Since 2007, approval of Gov. Beebe has never dipped below 70 percent. That level of support for a Democratic governor in a Southern state is remarkable in this political climate.”

In the 2012 poll, there was little change in the approval ratings for other elected officials over the 2011 ratings. Arkansans are generally positive about the way their U.S. senators are handling the job: 45 percent of very likely voters approve of the performance of John Boozman, and 53 percent approve of Mark Pryor’s performance. When asked about life in Arkansas, 73 percent of poll respondents agreed, “Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction.”

As in past years, the economy leads the list of important issues for Arkansans. When asked to choose from a list of the issues most frequently cited in last year’s poll, 47 percent of Arkansans named the economy as their chief concern. Following at a distance were health care at 15 percent, drugs at 12 percent and education at 11 percent. Taxes and immigration were in the single digits.

Janine Parry, professor of political science, University of Arkansas

The poll surveyed Arkansans about support for two measures that will appear on the November ballot: the first to increase the state sales tax to fund road construction and the second to legalize the medical use of marijuana. Among very likely voters, 53 percent favor the sales tax measure and 42 percent oppose. When it comes to permitting the medical use of marijuana in Arkansas for certain conditions, 53 percent of very likely voters oppose the measure and 43 percent favor it.

Each year the Arkansas Poll asks Arkansans their opinion on some current issues. For the first time this year, the poll asked questions related to the expansion of Medicaid and to the DREAM Act. The health care law allows states to expand Medicaid to provide health insurance to more low income people, and the poll question went on to say: “The federal government will initially pay the entire cost of this expansion, and after several years, Arkansas will pay 10 percent and the federal government will pay 90 percent. Arkansas must decide whether to go ahead with this expansion.” In response, 45 percent supported keeping Medicaid as is, with no addition federal funding and no change in who is covered. Expanding Medicaid was supported by 43 percent.

Regarding the case of people who were brought to Arkansas from foreign countries when they were young and are not here legally but went on to graduate from an Arkansas high school, 58 percent of Arkansans opposed allowing them to pay in-state tuition at public colleges and universities. Another 33 percent supported giving them access to in-state tuition.

Over the past seven years, poll results have shown little change in views toward gay marriage, with 55 percent of respondents opposing any legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship. When questioned about government policy regarding undocumented immigrants, 55 percent endorsed allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens after meeting certain criteria, such as learning English and paying back taxes. In contrast 26 percent advocated deporting all undocumented immigrants. There has been little change in these results since 2009.

Methodology and Sample Information

The 2012 Arkansas Poll was conducted by Issues & Answers Network. Between Oct. 9 and 14, interviewers completed 800 live telephone interviews among a random sample of adult Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents were cell phone users. Ten of the interviews were conducted in Spanish.

The survey’s margin of error statewide is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, meaning that researchers are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points in either direction of the result the poll’s sample produced.

To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team publishes what most polling organizations do not, a comparison of survey respondents’ key demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is available on the poll website. A full summary report of the 2012 poll results and data from past Arkansas Polls will be available at 8 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 24, at the Arkansas Poll website.

The 2012 Arkansas Poll was sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society at the University of Arkansas. The poll was designed and analyzed by Parry, a professor in the department of political science in the J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Arkansas. Data from current and past polls are available at http://www.uark.edu/depts/plscinfo/partners/arkpoll.php.