ARKANSAS POLITICS TO BE INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE WITH INDEPENDENTS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE, ARKANSAS POLE FINDS

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Will Rogers is reputed to have said "there’s not a dime’s worth of difference" between the Democratic and Republican parties, but the new Arkansas Poll suggests otherwise. What’s more, the Arkansas political landscape is heavily influenced by an informal but substantial third force - the independent voter who, on controversial issues, tends to side with the party favoring less government control.

"Arkansas is in sharp transition," said Dr. Janine Parry, director of the Arkansas Poll. "It was once the most Democratically-controlled state in the Union, but has evolved into an increasingly competitive two-party system in which Independents play a large role. That evolution is continuing today, but it is difficult to project whether the future is going to be brighter for Democrats or Republicans."

According to the Arkansas Poll, a random sample telephone poll of 885 men and women conducted between Sept. 15 and Oct. 2, Arkansas is still Democratic. Some 35 percent of poll respondents identified themselves as being Democrats. But the second largest grouping (31 percent) identified themselves as being Independent, while 23 percent called themselves Republicans.

What’s more, according to the Poll’s third special report on "Continuity and Change: Partisanship and Ideology in Arkansas," Independents tend to be similar in outlook to Democrats and Republicans when those parties are in agreement with each other on a particular issue. When Democrats and Republicans disagree, however, Independents lean toward the side that requires less government intervention.

"Arkansas’s Democrats and Republicans hold similar views on certain issues and widely divergent views on others," said Dr. Bill Schreckhise, assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas and, with Dr. Todd Shields, director of the UA’s Fulbright Institute, co-author of the third special report.

"On the Arkansas Poll, people from both parties supported repealing the sales tax on goods from grocery stores (70 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of Republicans) and passing a constitutional amendment banning the burning of the U.S. flag (75 percent of Democrats and Republicans). Similar proportions of independents supported these measures.

"The two parties expressed very different views on other, more controversial issues," Schreckhise added. Some 65 percent of Republican respondents said they wanted laws making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, while only 38 percent of Democrats expressed the same view. Democrats also were far more likely to support legalizing casino gambling and stricter gun control laws.

"On these more controversial issues," he said, Arkansas’s independents are middle-of-the-road, but standing a little closer to Democrats on the abortion and gambling questions and closer to the Republicans on gun control."

Ideological differences

On the Arkansas Poll, respondents were asked whether they were liberal, moderate, or conservative. When these responses were lined up with political party, the results were as follows:

Liberal: 20 percent of Democrats, 13 percent of Independents, eight percent of Republicans.

Moderate: 48 percent of Democrats, 40 percent of Independents, 28 percent of Republicans.

Conservative: 20 percent of Democrats, 40 percent of Independents, 62 percent of Republicans.

Demographic and Regional Differences

The Arkansas Poll’s findings mirrored trends across the nation and within other Southern states, Schreckhise said. For example:

Republicans and Independents tended to be slightly younger (48 years old, on average) than Democrats (52 years old).

Females were 46 percent Democrat, 32 percent Independent, and 23 percent Republican. Men were 29 percent Democrat, 38 percent Independent, 32 percent Republican.

Non-white respondents were 60 percent Democrat, 28 percent Independent and 12 percent Republican. Whites were 34 percent Democrat, 36 percent Independent, and 29 percent Republican.

Republicans tended to be somewhat better educated: 39 percent of Republicans had graduated from college, compared with 23 percent of the Democrats and 21 percent of the Independents.

Republicans also tended to be more affluent: 47 percent of Republicans reported incomes over $35,000, compared with 37 percent of Independents and 31 percent of Democrats.

The balance of the parties in Arkansas also differs by congressional district:

First District (Northeast): 40 percent Democrat, 32 percent Independent, 20 percent Republican.

Second District (Central): 34 percent Democrat, 30 percent Independent, 28 percent Republican.

Third District (Northwest): 28 percent Democrat, 34 percent Independent, 24 percent Republican.

Fourth District (South): 42 percent Democrat, 27 percent Independent, 18 percent Republican.

"Surprisingly, Democrats still outnumber Republicans in all of Arkansas’s four congressional districts," Schreckhise said. "Although conventional wisdom suggests Republicans dominate the Third District, there are actually fewer respondents in that district identifying themselves as Republicans than respondents claiming to be Democrats—and there are more Independents in that district than members of either of the two party camps."

Participation

Measuring participation in the political process, the Arkansas Poll found that Republicans tended to vote, write letters to officials, and attended political meetings at slightly higher rates than Democrats and Independents.

Republicans were, however, more than twice as likely as the other two groups to donate money to political campaigns.

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